Catch a Wave & we’re Sitting on Top of the World

“If I say it’s safe to surf this beach Captain, it’s safe to surf this beach” Lt Colonel Bill Kilgore, Apocalypse Now (Robert Duval).

Political pundits are dissecting the red wave that wasn’t. At a time when the pendulum of political change seemed destine to swing right, voters chose gridlock. Polls indicate that 66% of voters don’t want Biden to run again, 77% are concerned about the economy, and like the current and former President, both parties hover around a 40% approval rating. What message did voters send?

“Charlie don’t surf!”

Exit polling by National Election Pool (NEP) found Democrats reported voting to protect abortion rights while Republicans reported voting on inflation. CNN credited swinging-Independents with determining the outcome. Harvard polling found that not only did more voters under 30 voters show up, but that this is the 3^rd election in a row where younger demographics determined election outcomes. In essence, voters currently under 40 are strong Democrats while blue collar Boomers shifted toward Republicans. National Public Radio reported that mortality rates among Trump voters were 2.3% per year (or 9.2% over four years). On top of this, voters across all age groups want younger candidates like Maxwell Frost – the first GenZ elected to Congress.

In his races, President Obama effectively used Identity Politics to discuss policies and issues concerning voters. For good or bad, this heightened awareness of changing racial and ethnic demographics.

"You either surf or fight. That clear?"

In 2016, older voters expressed concerned about losing their place amid demographic changes. At that time, 58% of self-identified Conservatives defined higher education as a threat to American society. In a society based on merit, these working class men and women sensed that “elites” including the wealthy, the educated, and the powerful were looking down their noses at tradesmen and hourly workers.

This sense of being marginalized lingers among older voters. In a KPTM interview, Governor-Elect Pillen, said, “we need to get rid of this nonsense” that people need a [college] degree to have merit. A TV ad by Iowa Democrat Congresswoman Cindy Axne showed two farmers declaring she would protect the benefits “we earned.”

However, voters are fed up with divisive politics. This election demonstrates a strategic shift from right versus left to middle versus extremes. According to voters, the GOP has an extremism problem: election deniers & conspiracy peddlers, the hallmark of Trumpism, were throttled in the midterm.

While Republicans reported voting on inflation worries, the results suggest something else. Described as Trump fatigue and I think this is the underlying message of the Midterm, although the future of Conservative Populism remains uncertain, GOP voters are abandoning the former president. One elected official shared a vision where conservatives could re-emerge without kowtowing to MAGA toxicity and return the nation to a healthy, functioning, two-party system.

“I love the smell of Napalm in the morning.”

Regardless of the outcome in the House, Americans are looking at two more years of political gridlock. Our system of self-governance is, by design, slow moving, intentionally inefficient, and prone to forcing moderation. It is not a democracy, nor was it ever intended to be one.

With razor thin margins and a nearby veto pen, Washington will be forced to relearn compromise and moderation. This may be the environment where Don Bacon can be most effective.

"What the hell do you know about surfing? You're from New Jersey!"

Speculation suggests Pillen will genuflect the soon-to-be former Governor into the U.S. Senate. Does the heir apparent have the visionary thinking expected by modern voters or disposition to be one among 100? Pillen would signal independence and respect to voters by opening the process to interviews.

A recent PBS Frontline episode showed how House Speaker Pelosi shut down the radical left in her party and kept the Democrats together. John Boehner, Paul Ryan, and Kevin McCarthy struggled mightily with the divisions in the GOP. The misnamed Freedom Caucus has already declared themselves against McCarthy and the GOP majority.

Recently Mitt Romney (R) shared he hopes the GOP acts to, “better for the American people” rather than “pointless investigations, messaging bills, threats, and government shutdowns." The voters have spoken: there are no victory laps this time. Voters neither support the Republican nor Biden agendas. Voters want healthy governance that addresses real world concerns over the fluff and bluff of the last six years. The party that hears voters and acts accordingly will fare best in 2024.

Charlie don't surf and we think he should
Charlie don't surf and you know that it ain't no good (The Clash)