Eeny Meeny Miny Moe

On Tuesday, dutiful Americans re-up their voting journey towards a better America. Nebraska’s 2d District is blessed politically. Regardless of the midterm outcome, our Representative will be credible, intelligent, and honest. Contrary to outsider PACS, neither candidate is a fascist or socialist.  

More than usual, voters seem undecided. Research indicates most voters choose their candidate on shared party identification or a candidate’s perceived friendliness. Voters then construct policy arguments to support their choice.  Nebraska’s 2d is among the most flippable Congressional seats. Simply, we are moderates whose thumbprint rests on the nation’s pulse.  

 

"Let us be lovers, we'll marry our fortunes together. I've got some real estate here in my bag" (Simon & Garfunkel, America) 

 

Nebraska’s Secretary of State reports 37.8% of 2d District voters are Republicans, 35.7% Democrats, and 26.5% ‘others.’ We can count on (approximately) ~45% voting Republican, ~44% voting Democrat, and the swinging middle determining the outcome. Former DCRP Chair Jon Tucker suggests the middle will be only 3%...well within the margin of error such that harsh weather could affect the outcome.  

 

“So we bought a pack of cigarettes and Mrs. Wagner pies. And walked off to look for America” 

 

These days, voters usually sweep a party into power giving them the White House, Senate, and House, then, at the first midterm, giving back the House and/or the Senate. Politico finds the Bacon v Vargas race a “toss up.”

 

As of late September, Bacon outspent Vargas 3 1/2:1 while PAC spending more than tripled both candidates. Interestingly, Bacon used his military title, General, in ads. As conflicts heat up in Ukraine and Taiwan, highlighting military experience makes sense. Vargas experiences in the Unicameral and School Board provides a knowledge base of statewide and K-12 Education issues.  

 

"Kathy, I'm lost", I said, though I knew she was sleeping. I'm empty and aching and I don't know why.” 

 

Gallup reports that there is wide support among the four major racial/ethnic groups for access to abortion. According to Kaiser Family Foundation, women’s reproductive healthcare recently became a top five voting issue. National Public Radio reports sporadic increases among women registering to vote. Politico’s examination of voter registration shows significant shifts from Republicans to Democrats since the Dobb’s decision. Whether abortion brings out voters is yet to be determined. 

 

While Vargas advocates letting women decide their own reproductive health issues, Bacon supports a federal abortion ban “on principle” after 15 weeks (about 3 and a half months). Becka’s Beat noted 17 Unicameral Democrats successfully prevented legislation outlawing abortion. Should Vargas and Pillen both win, it is unlikely the Governor would replace Vargas with a Democrat – thus potentially opening a pathway to outlawing abortion in Nebraska.  

 

“It took me four days to hitchhike from Saginaw. I've gone to look for America” 

 

Bacon is the 12^th most bipartisan member of Congress and the most likely to work across the aisle on legislation. These are prized attributes. However, a consistent criticism of Bacon is that his voting record does not sufficiently distinguish claims of moderation versus the MAGA agenda. Bacon recently vowed to not support a Trump candidacy in 2024. And he was among 35 GOP Representatives who voted to form the January 6^th commission.  

 

Other factors to consider include voter’s willingness to cross party lines as exhibited by voting Biden and Bacon (2020), or Obama & Terry (2008). The railroading of Liz Cheney, election denial, and tolerance of buffoonery by Greene, Bobbitt, Cruz, Abbott, and DeSantis, and the recent shift by the Nebraska GOP towards more strident Republicanism, might push voters leftward. 

 

A significant factor is changing demographics. A co-worker shared that neither of her sons plans to vote. Although Democrats appeal strongly to younger voters, historically older turnout is much higher. Younger voters will weigh an older, white Bacon against Vargas’ youth and first generation, Hispanic immigrant roots. 

 

“Counting the cars on the New Jersey Turnpike. They've all come to look for America” 

 

Both candidates were well received when they spoke at the Free Speech Society. National politics will affect this race. Some will vote against Bacon and for Vargas as a stopgap against a possible 2024 Trump run.  Some will weigh ‘The devil you know’ strategy. If Bacon were to lose, who might step up in 2024? While Brett Linstrom demonstrated strong appeal among 2d District voters, a less moderate Republican could appear.  

 

Finally, midyear 2023, expect signaling from Biden to opt out of a second term. Simultaneously, despite twerking at allusions of running again, with a low approval rating, a Trump run seems unlikely. With no incumbents, expect herds of candidates from both parties to vie for the White House.  

 

“And the moon rose over an open field. All come to look for America.”